Some happy thoughts

As we hurtle to a government shut-down, I feel the need to point out some happy things.

Los Angeles will experience another Ciclavia this Sunday, October 6.  Come bicycle or walk around downtown LA without cars.

Tanaka Farms is hosting their annual Fall CSA day for CSA subscribers on Saturday October 5.  Subscribe and you and your family can join the Tanaka family to celebrate the fall harvest.

The Affordable Care Act will go into effect tomorrow.  Read what the available evidence really says in Obamacare, the Oregon Experiment, and Medicaid at Science-Based Medicine.

Medicaid coverage decreased the probability of a positive screening for depression (−9.15 percentage points; 95% confidence interval, −16.70 to −1.60; P = 0.02), increased the use of many preventive services, and nearly eliminated catastrophic out-of-pocket medical expenditures.

I've been swamped performing family work, recovering from family work, and applying for market (paying) work.  But, I hope to write something tomorrow about the connection between Cinderelmo and geomagnetism/geophysics.  It's something I doubt you'll ever read in the main-stream media (MSM) to cover, but I hope you will find it informative and uplifting.

After the rain

The air is sooooo clear.

We drove over water to get to grandma's house.

Just kidding.  The new Bay Bridge span is so new, my GPS doesn't know about it.

I was born on an alluvial plain by the sea and I spent the bulk of my childhood on another low-lying island (in the SF Bay).  Neap tides each year build community spirit as people fill sandbags together on the levee.  I take sea level rise personally.

Rather than making grandma cook, we let Cooking Papa do it instead.  (Photo taken while waiting for a table.)  And, yeah, I am grateful to have lived in some pretty nice places.

Unfortunately, we did not see either Bay Bridge troll.

• The original
• The transistion plan
• The new troll

We did see Richard Diebenkorn and Bulgari at the De Young.  We highly recommend both.  More later.

Some Boulder Flooding Links

Bad Dad and Meta Megan asked what I am posting about the Boulder floods.  I just don't feel very good about being right in What nesting articles don't tell you because some of the people affected by the floods didn't act irresponsibly.  That is, they took reasonable precautions based on past experience but the environment changed about them.

Both climate change and development around them changed  the distribution of rainfall and how much the ground absorbs (or doesn't absorb).  It's hard to make rational and economically-viable plans when so much that is out of your control is changing.

Ironically, the City of Boulder Flood Hazard Map was updated in 2013 to reflect changes in modeling and the built environment.  The results were submitted to FEMA in September 2013.

As a result of the proposed floodplain boundary changes, 106 buildings would no longer be affected by the 100-year floodplain, 76 buildings would be newly affected, and 565 buildings would remain in the floodplain. As the data is refined and public input is received, these numbers may change slightly, but the general trends will remain the same. Changes to the floodplain maps can affect flood insurance requirements.

The last week or so have been the ultimate model validation experiment.  As a modeler, I should be excited.  But I have no appetite for it right now.

Take a look at the soil in this slow-motion mudslide.  Boulder canyon, and its side canyons, also suffered from recent wildfires.  Not only was there no vegetation to hold the soil in place, but a blanket of ash prevented water from soaking into the ground.



Links:

• Dr Jeff Masters has a good summary and a great list of scientific links.
• Compare and contrast media coverage and number of deaths in Boulder vs. Mexico in recent flash floods.
• Dr Ricky Rood interrupted his series about the Arctic Oscillation (AO) to discuss the Boulder floods and it's connection to AO.
• Some people falsely frame the debate by admitting that climate change is happening, but it is too expensive to do anything about it.  Dr Rood's AO series explains why climate change is more expensive.  If you have time to read one thing, I cannot recommend it enough.

Dr Rood mentioned the comparison with flooding in western Pakistan.  If you have gardened in Boulder, you will be familiar with clay soils.  That's also why the flooding in western Pakistan was so severe.  Due to AO, the Asian monsoon flow pattern has moved from areas with sandy soils that drain quickly to areas with clay soils that don't.  Unlike Boulder, the people in western Pakistan won't have insurance money (public or private) to rebuild.

Hermosa Beach's sister city of Loreto suffered the collapse of two bridges (including one major throughfare) in torrential rain this summer.

When I lived in Colorado, people who like to point out government incompetence often cited the statistic that Colorado spends more per mile on road maintenance than any other state.  I looked at the climate data and thought, of course.  Colorado used to be the only state where the daily average highs are above freezing while the daily average lows for 5-6 months of the year were below freezing.  Thus, Colorado infrastructure experiences more freeze and thaw cycles than those in any other state.

Who should pay for rebuilding and retro-fitting for climate change?  The people who live in harm's way?  Or the people who dumped the most carbon in the atmosphere?