We're subsidizing the wrong electric vehicles

I read that Tesla raised the price of their popular Model Y SUV after the US altered the tax credit rule to make the Model Y eligible for tax credits. The Tesla Y is the most popular Tesla in my area so I looked up the specs. It's a relatively heavy vehicle at ~2,000 kg or ~4,400 lbs. But it can only carry a relatively paltry 433 kg of passenger + cargo. That's about a 5:1 ratio between vehicle and payload. 

I've been eying a Tern GSD and one of my friends has been bragging about how his top of the line GSD R14 was the best purchase he's ever made. He's 6'5" tall and he carries his similarly tall 10 year-old son and everything they need for the school and commute run between central Boulder and their mountain home. The Tern GSD S10 weights 33.5 kg (before accessories) and can carry an additional 200 kg! That's a 1:5 ratio between vehicle and payload.

That means this family with two Tern GSDs can haul 400 kg, or almost as much as a Tesla Y at about 1/5 of the cost (before the tax credit).  I know that the battery range on a eBike is much shorter than for the Tesla, but cyclists can easily find regular outlets to charge their eBikes up while taking a break. 

	Vehicle kg	Vehicle Capacity kg	Battery Wh	Cost	Tax Credit
Tesla Y	1929-2010	433	81,000	$54,990 - $57,990	$7,500
Tern GSD S10	33.6	200	400-900	$5,399	$0
2*Tern GSD S10	67.2	400	700-1,800	$10,798	$0

You can add a trailer to one of the Tern GSDs and haul just as much as the Tesla Y!

Best of all, you can roll eBikes onto a train and then roll off at farther destination. Or you can carry them in an elevator up to your apartment rather than pay for expensive car parking stalls. 

I digress, if only we had a transportation system with great train service and bicycle-friendly roads.  Sigh. 

Enjoy this video, including the end where the young couple exit from a Taipei rail station near the beach. 

 

Remember Carbon Intensity of eBiking vs Driving? I use about 10 Wh/mi when utility cycling around my hilly area, often with shopping and other cargo. When I Tweeted about this, a father who carries 2 children and groceries on his Cargo eBike Tweeted back that he gets about 14-18 Wh/mi on his eBike and about 250-300 Wh/mi in his EV. That's similar to the Model Y performance. 

So a family riding on 2 Tern GSDs will use about 35 Wh/mi while the same family & cargo on the Model Y will use 250-300 Wh/mi. The Model Y is very efficient for such a heavy vehicle. They are both pretty efficient compared to an ICE car. 

The current problem is the global supply constraints on batteries. The same battery materials that go into one Model Y could build 200 eBikes. Do we build one electric SUV for one family, or 200 cargo eBikes for 100 families? If we focus only on replacing cars one for one with electric ones, then we will miss out on all the savings from mode shifting to lighter, more efficient electric vehicles.

Researchers in Europe did the math and concluded that fixating on larger and longer range EVs while battery supplies are constrained can increase CO2 emissions by slowing the global mode shift required.

The new electric SUV market under battery supply constraints: Might they increase CO2 emissions?

Again, looking at the micro view, an EV lowers CO2 emissions relative to an ICE car. But, zoom out and look at the macro view, putting too many eggs in one basket (literally too many battery packs in a large EV) vs a bunch of baskets (eBikes), can increase global CO2 emissions. 

We're subsidizing the wrong vehicles. If we really wanted to reduce emissions quickly, we would be subsidizing eBikes and scooters, transit, and building safe and supportive infrastructure for micro-mobility ASAP. We're not and that's the tragedy.